Ukraine is offering amnesty plus five million rubles to anyone who deserts from the Russian army and agrees to go to a Ukrainian prison. That’s about $48,000, probably several years’ pay for a young Russian worker. On the surface, this sounds like a sweet deal, but on reflection, it’s anything but. Put yourself in the shoes of a Russian soldier. First, you have to elude the Russian Army, knowing you could be shot for desertion. Then, you have to surrender without getting killed by Ukrainians. After that, you’re stuck in prison; maybe they’ll deposit you in a regular POW camp, complete with Russian loyalists ready to kill you when the guard’s not looking. Wherever you languish, you know your fate hinges on the outcome of the war.
Russian Pilot Who Defected to Ukraine Is Believed Dead in Spain
The apparent death in Spain of Maksim Kuzminov is likely to fuel speculation that it was the work of Russia’s intelligence services.
Maksim Kuzminov pulled off a daring escape last summer when he defected to Ukraine and handed his military helicopter over to Ukrainian commandos in exchange for half a million dollars.
Ukraine trumpeted the defection as a major coup. But in Vladimir V. Putin’s Russia, he was guilty of the most grievous sin anyone can commit: Treason. Ukrainian intelligence officials warned Mr. Kuzminov that his life was in danger and urged him not to leave the country.
But he ignored them, and was believed to have moved with his money to a small resort town of pastel houses on Spain’s Mediterranean coast.
I really like this idea. One complication: Russia has been offering prisoners, convicted of serious crimes, amnesty in exchange for their volunteering for military service. Then, the Russian army has used these convicts-turned-soldiers as cannon fodder in Ukraine. These would likely be the first and most likely soldiers to defect. How should Ukraine and the EU handle these soldiers' surrender (assuming they can even be distinguished from non-convict Russian solders)?
Were Russia to make a similar offer to Ukrainian soldiers, I suspect that there might be a lot of native Russian-speakers (a significant fraction of the Ukrainian population) who would elect to move the other direction. As you noted, this is a tactic that can work in both directions.
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One of the many smart policies which are very difficult to pass due to unpopularity with voters.
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/cm/russian-pilot-defected-ukraine-mi-225126196.html
FYI. Tim T.
And this just in from the NY Times:
Russian Pilot Who Defected to Ukraine Is Believed Dead in Spain
The apparent death in Spain of Maksim Kuzminov is likely to fuel speculation that it was the work of Russia’s intelligence services.
Maksim Kuzminov pulled off a daring escape last summer when he defected to Ukraine and handed his military helicopter over to Ukrainian commandos in exchange for half a million dollars.
Ukraine trumpeted the defection as a major coup. But in Vladimir V. Putin’s Russia, he was guilty of the most grievous sin anyone can commit: Treason. Ukrainian intelligence officials warned Mr. Kuzminov that his life was in danger and urged him not to leave the country.
But he ignored them, and was believed to have moved with his money to a small resort town of pastel houses on Spain’s Mediterranean coast.
I really like this idea. One complication: Russia has been offering prisoners, convicted of serious crimes, amnesty in exchange for their volunteering for military service. Then, the Russian army has used these convicts-turned-soldiers as cannon fodder in Ukraine. These would likely be the first and most likely soldiers to defect. How should Ukraine and the EU handle these soldiers' surrender (assuming they can even be distinguished from non-convict Russian solders)?
IIRC a criticism of anarcho-capitalism is that using private defense agencies means the protection of your rights can be outbid by competitors.
But this is essentially what already happens in wars between states - the country with the largest economy can crush the weaker one.
Caplan suggests we only need to figure out which government can pay more and skip the bloodshed.
Were Russia to make a similar offer to Ukrainian soldiers, I suspect that there might be a lot of native Russian-speakers (a significant fraction of the Ukrainian population) who would elect to move the other direction. As you noted, this is a tactic that can work in both directions.
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